The market leans toward Elche but without strong conviction, leaving room for an upset. Elche's recent form of 3W-0D-2L shows strong consistency, while Alaves sit at 1W-2D-2L heading into this fixture. Alaves have dominated this fixture historically, taking 3 of the last 5 encounters regardless of venue. At 42% model probability against 42% market consensus, the price is fair — no standout value, but the read still points to Elche.